Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Monday with minor to fractional losses in nearby contracts. The usual Monday reports are going to be released tomorrow, as the USDA was closed Monday for Columbus Day. Trade estimates for corn harvest are around 22-23% complete as of Sunday, which would be behind the 35% average. Drier weather expected for this week should allow harvest to progress in some areas not hit by recent precip events. Another round of moisture is expected this weekend along the Corn Belt.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, unch,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $4.07 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.12 1/2, down 1/4 cent

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.16, down 1/2 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures charged out of the weekend to finish Monday 4 to 4 1/2 cents higher, riding the winter weather rally. Parts of the Dakotas saw up to 2 feet of snow in last week’s storm. Soybean meal lost $0.90/ton, while soy oil closed Monday up 7 points. Traders are expecting Tuesday’s Crop Progress report to show soybean harvest as of 10/14 at 25-26%, which would be 11% behind last year and 23% behind the average. A Reuters survey suggests September NOPA crush will be around 162 million bushels. It should be down from August (168 mbu) due to 1 less processing day and some plant downtime ahead of harvest. Brazilian planting is 9.5% completed vs. the 5 year average of 12.4%, according to a firm called ARC Mercosul quoted on Eikon.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.55, up 4 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.65, up 4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.72 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal closed at $306.00, down $0.90,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.90, up $0.07

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures ended the day higher, with Kansas City HRW leading the way up 6 1/4 cents. Chicago SRW closed Monday with 3 cent gains in Dec, and Minneapolis HRS 4 cents higher. Export Inspections data will be delayed until Tuesday due to the Columbus Day Holiday. Delayed Progress data will also be released Tuesday afternoon, with what’s left of the Spring wheat harvest expected to be slowed by last week’s storm IKAR raised their Russian wheat production estimate by 0.2 MMT to 75.6.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11, up 3 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.25 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.52, up 4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures gained triple digits, ending Monday $1.175 to $1.30 higher. Feeder cattle futures were also higher at Monday’s close, ending the day up $1.45 to $1.825 in nearbys. The CME Feeder Cattle index was 63 cents higher on 10/11 to $144.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday. Choice boxes were up $1.56 to $217.22, with Select boxes 65 cents higher to $189.33, which widened the spread to 27.89. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the start of the week was 117,000 head. That is 1,000 head above last week and 2,000 larger than the same week last year.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $110.625, up $1.175,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.450, up $1.300,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $119.275, up $1.225,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.550, up $1.450

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.075, up $1.825

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.225, up $1.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were mixed in the nearby contracts; DEC lost 47 1/2 cents while FEB contracts saw $0.20 gains. October futures expired today. The Chinese ag ministry mentioned the national hog herd was down 41% yr/yr in September, with the sow herd down 38.9% from a year ago. According to China’s Customs bureau, pork imports in September were 76% larger than in September 2018 at 166,000 MT. The CME Lean Hog Index was up an additional $0.53 to $61.18 on Oct 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 42 cents higher for Monday’s close to finish at $77.94. The national average base hog value was 89 cents higher after the weekend at $57.50. Estimated FI hog slaughter for last week was revised down 30,000 head to 2.695 million. USDA estimated Monday’s slaughter at 491,000 head, up 7,000 head form last week and 30,000 from last year.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $63.075, up $0.150,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $69.125, down $0.475

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $77.250, up $0.200

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw triple digit losses at Monday’s closing, with DEC down 169 points and Mar closing 131 points lower. Optimism from last week’s trade sessions with China gave cotton a boost in the overnight, but now the market is shifting into “show me the money” mode. Crop Progress data will be released on Tuesday afternoon. The Cotlook A Index was down 75 points to 71.75 cents/lb for October 11. The AWP is 53.90 cents/lb through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 62.19, down 169 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 63.14, down 131 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 63.95, down 86 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 64.62, down 34 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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