Initiating a Short RBOB Gasoline Spread

The RBOB Gasoline (G20-J20) spread is sitting very near the top of its 5-yr and 15-yr pattern and looks primed to drop into seasonal weakness. The spread has profited in 13 of the last 15 years when sold on 10/15 and bought on 10/31. The average profit is 148% of the average draw-down while the average best profit is 3.4x the average worst profit. On Tuesday, I will be selling the RBOB Gasoline (G20-J20) calendar spread at a limit of ($.1888).